I get asked almost daily, when will we hit bottom, have we hit bottom, will we hit bottom, where is the bottom, when will prices rise, etc. I deal with A LOT of REO listings (foreclosures) and talk to my asset manager's who share their take on things based on being in the trenches. No, we haven't hit bottom in my opinion (which is supported by a lot of data and stats). There are a plethora of foreclosures just sitting in bank inventory waiting, waiting, waiting.
Below are some statistics that give a sobering reality to the foreclosure situation along with some interesting questions posed by the writer.
Here is great graph showing the great effect all the money that has been thrown at housing is having. If you missed the news yesterday delinquencies rose to 14.69%. Their highest level in the fist quarter of 2010. Which means foreclosures should also go to their highest level probably third quarter of 2010 which then translate into a bottom of the real estate market 2nd quarter 2011 maybe 3rd quarter 2011 depending on how fast the lenders bring inventory to market. Right now the estimate is 4.3 million seriously delinquent loans if 50% are foreclosed on and brought to market each of the next two years that is approximately 50% of the home sales in each of those two years. Several question come from this information you may want to ask yourself.
#1 do you think prices will rise or fall with new additional foreclosed homes on the market?
#2 if prices fall will that create a slower resale market or a faster resale market?
#3 if prices fall how will this affect the new home construction business in terms of building units for sale?
#4 if new home construction stays at the levels that it currently is for the next two years what happens to all the businesses that supply construction?
#5 with no tax credits to "create" buyers how will this affect sales and prices?
#6 with unemployment projected at over 9% for all of 2011 how will this affect sales?
Thoughts to ponder before you run out to buy in the depressed areas because they are such a "good' buy
On a positive note only four states have a lower delinquency rate than Montana!!!!!
Thank you for stopping by. Your comments on this post are welcomed and appreciated.
No one sold more homes in Del Norte County in 2009--*both in number and volume--than Fran Gatti. Put Fran to work for you!
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Fran, thanks for sharing this valuable information on foreclosures. Best Regards,
These statisticsare overwhelming. I'm glad to see that Texas is in the bottom half of the stats on this graph. Thanks for your educational post.
Hello,
I was trying to find out the listing price of a lot I saw this last week end forgot the address, but it's a two house lot they are green in color and the drive way separates the two houses?
It was also about 3-4 streets back from the coast drive.
Can you help me ,? I looked on your web site but didn't see them. Re-Max was the Realtor.
Thank you for your time
Sharon,
Please email me at frangatti@remax.net so I can assist you. I do not have your email address.